The day of the 7th NBA Top Shot S3 base set Release is here. I thought of contributing with an expanded analysis on the content of the drop. I hope you'll find it useful.

Series 3 Pack Expected Value

This time I'll only present data that was computed using the average sell price in the last two weeks, as I think that this is the best indicator.

Long story short… the EV of this release is the highest I have ever computed!

Using the usual method, the EV=19.2$.

That's an outrageous 113% expected return on your 9$ pack. What is the price increase driven by?

  1. As usual, NBA Top Shot Flash Challenges really inflate the market. But they seem to be here to stay, so you might as well think that this is the new normal.
  2. Rookies' prices are through the roof and just keep increasing.
  3. This release has many 10k (Haliburton or Derrick White) and 60k (Vanderbilt) moments of potential bottlenecks, plus some other moments like the Durant one, that I think will easily settle around 5-10$, similar to the Steph one.
  4. Last but not least, compared to release 6, there are quite a few interesting 12k TSDs that have been rising in price lately.

To avoid the usual comments such as "most moments are trash, all my packs are worth 6$", here is the plot with the most probable value of a pack.

r/nbatopshot - Thinking about sitting this pack drop out? 🤔 Think about it twice! 👀 A deep dive on EV, Rookies and Teams

Indeed, the most likely value of a pack is 7$, but as we discussed last time when you don't pull a shitty pack, chances are that you pull is VERY good. Here below is again the same plot as last time that shows this. Pay attention to the fact that the y-axis is log-transformed.

r/nbatopshot - Thinking about sitting this pack drop out? 🤔 Think about it twice! 👀 A deep dive on EV, Rookies and Teams

Rookies

Rookies make NBA Top Shot pack rippers happy, so what are the chances of pulling one as a function of the number of packs that you buy? This time the likelihood is a bit lower than the last release, as there are no atypical 12k 3-stars rookies such as Bouknight.

Here is a plot that computes this. As you see, if you manage to buy the max number of packs allowed, your chances of pulling a rookie are roughly 28%. If you only buy one, the probability is 3%. 5 packs, a nice number in the middle, gives you a 15% chance.

r/nbatopshot - Thinking about sitting this pack drop out? 🤔 Think about it twice! 👀 A deep dive on EV, Rookies and Teams

Expected Value: Team by Team

If you are a maniac like me, and want to visualize for which team you should hope your moment to come from before revealing what you have in the pack.. I got you covered. Here is the EV of a single moment, broken down team by team.

Houston dominates the chart, thanks to the presence of many Green moments in the release, but also because it has many many rookies in his roster. If your moment is a Houston one, it has an incredible 11% of being the moment of a rookie. You should really visualize that Houston logo before revealing a moment.

Much further down in the team EV rankings come OKC, Toronto and a slew of other teams that are all pretty close one to another.

Washington, Utah and Phila are our worst enemies.

r/nbatopshot - Thinking about sitting this pack drop out? 🤔 Think about it twice! 👀 A deep dive on EV, Rookies and Teams
This EV relates to a single moment

A Bit of Interactivity

You are very welcome to disagree with my price forecasts and/or approach. For all the plots/analysis that I presented here I used a python script, but the EV can also easily be calculated in Excel. Here is a spreadsheet that does just that. You can verify the math and it also contains instructions on how to change the predicted price values.

If you disagree with my assumptions, let me know in the comments how/why you disagree and what EV your assumptions lead to.

Final Remarks

If you like what you are reading, and you want to help me keep it going, don't be shy about it!

Send me some ❤❤❤ (duplicates) on TS, my username is gummibaerchen 😁 If you have no duplicates, perhaps consider buying some of the 3$ S3 moments that I have on sale.